Frank's Westminster Blog

Join the club Ed. When the pre-budget report was published I said here that is was sheer moonshine. The two trip wires which could trip the Government into reality came from two single sets of figures in the entire report. The first was on public sector borrowing the other was on unemployment. I did not believe the Government borrowing figures were anywhere near accurate and, sadly, I believed the unemployment levels suggested for the end of 2010 would be crossed by the middle of this year.

The Government asserted on Monday, not once but many times, that it would be unlawful for any jobs to be so designated in this country that they were open only to British competition. The strikers have therefore not only won an important victory, which will have, I would hope, big repercussions around the country, but have now put the spotlight on the Government. Will the Government now move and say that the agreement is unlawful and tell the negotiators to start again? If they are not...

The latest estimates for the severity of the downturn are almost as bad as I feared. Our Gross Domestic Product shrunk by 2.1% in the second half of 2008 and is likely to fall by a further 2.7% during this year. From the first quarter of 2008 when the economy was still growing, through to the third quarter of this year the NIESR predicts a 3.6% fall in national income. The figures have a clinical ring about them, but they will herald very substantial misery for individuals and families...